It was almost six years ago when I, then writing at TWIC, came up with an idea to quantify and castigate "fightless" GM draws in Mig on Chess #116. Showing my usual flair for names that guarantee no one will take my ideas seriously, I called it "the Chicken Factor." It is a formula that analyzes a gamescore and produces a score for each player that says whether or not it was a fighting draw or a pathetic excuse for a game. (I made minor refinements published in MoC #118, see below with example.) ChessWise put my Excel Chicken Factor calculator online and it's still up.
The basic idea is to subtract the number of moves from total value of each player's pieces. I was surprised to find that the formula actually worked. It misread short, sharp repetition draws, but those are very rare and in the great scheme of things (a player's career or an entire tournament) would be statistically irrelevant. I had added a bunch of optional subjective factors, although I now think they are superfluous for the same reason. The original formula had modifiers based on color and the ratings of the players, so you got a bonus if you drew with black against a higher-rated player, etc. But these are cop-outs that go against the Chicken Factor ethos of promoting fighting chess regardless of color and rating points. No excuses!
I'm bringing this up because my vision for the CF may soon be realized. The laboriousness of calculating each game made it more of a joke than a tool. I said then that it would be truly powerful to have a PGN reader/calculator or to build it into database formats. Now that may actually be happening, so post your thoughts and suggestions.
The CF isn't an attack on chess professionals; I'm very much hoping to help them. Consider it an intervention to break the addiction to short draws. That addiction is harmful to the game, in this case meaning fan interest and sponsorship. I'm still in favor of move minimums, but the CF doesn't force anyone to do anything; it is an objective statistic. (Which is partly why I came up with it. Several GMs complained that I was too harsh in criticizing them for short draws. So the formula would do it for me.) You can even take it positively, as a method for rewarding those who fight hard in every game.
The Base Chicken Factor (revised and published May 1, 1999):
1) White starts with 10, Black with -10.
2) The value of the player's pieces in the final position minus the number of moves in the game. (The piece values are the commonly accepted Queen=9, Rook=5, Bishop and Knight=3, Pawn=1.)
3) Add the difference in the players' ratings divided by seven.
4) Apply the sliding scale penalty for draws of under 25 moves if necessary. (1-10 moves: add 45 points, 11-15 moves: add 30 points, 16-25: add 20 points)
The Full Chicken Factor (beginning with the BCF):
5) Subtract the number of consecutive losses the player had before the game in question multiplied by five.
6) Subtract five if the pawn structure in the final position was completely locked and five if it was completely symmetrical. (Subtract ten if both.)
7) Subtract 30 if the position had to be repeated due to imminent danger.
8) Subtract 10 if the player was in first or last place.
9) Add 10 if the final position does not leave behind known theory by at least five moves.
10) Add 30 if the player agreed to a draw in a winning position or subtract 20 if position was losing.
The Chicken Factor score-chart from Mig on Chess #116 remains unchanged, the basic concept is the higher the score, the more cowardly the player. In general, negative scores usually reflect hard-working draws, positive scores represent games that ripped off the fans and the organizers. Of course there will be exceptions, and I'd like to hear about them when you find them, so common sense can't go completely out the window!
Here's an example from last month's super-tournament.
Polgar,J (2677) - Karpov,A (2710) [B14]
Cat. 19 Dos Hermanas ESP (8), 16.04.1999
1.e4 c6 2.d4 d5 3.exd5 cxd5 4.c4 Nf6 5.Nc3 e6 6.Nf3 Bb4 7.cxd5 Nxd5 8.Bd2 Nc6 9.Bd3 Nf6 10.0-0 0-0 11.Bg5 h6 12.Be3 Bd6 13.Rc1 e5 14.h3 Be6 15.Qd2 Qa5 16.Bxh6 exd4 17.Nb5 Qxd2 18.Bxd2 Bb8 19.Nbxd4 Nxd4 20.Nxd4 Bxa2 21.Rfe1 Rd8 22.Bg5 Bf4 23.Bxf4 Rxd4 24.Bb1 Bxb1 25.Be5 Rd7 26.Bxf6 Bd3 27.Bc3 f6 28.Re3 Kf7 29.g4 -
FOR POLGAR:
As White she starts with a score of 10
Add the value of White's pieces in the final position: 10 + 17 = 27
Subtract the number of moves: 27 - 29 = -2
Add the difference between their rankings divided by seven: -2 + (-33/7) = BCF -6.7
FOR KARPOV
As Black he starts with a score of -10
Add the value of Black's pieces in the final position: -10 + 17 = 7
Subtract the number of moves: 7 - 29 = -22
Add the difference between their rankings divided by seven: -22 + (33/7) = BFC -17.3
This shows that it was a hard-fought draw, both players with negative Base Chicken Factors. If we look at the subjective factor checklist to find the Full Chicken Factor we only need subtract ten points from Polgar's score because she was in last place at the time of the game. This would drop her FCF score to -16.7, showing that the draw was equally worthy for both players.
Are you getting paid for this?
By who for what? But the answer is no.
Greg, could you please keep your stuff (now moved) to the official Bash Kasparov thread? That's why it was created, to stop you from hijacking every thread to attack Kasparov with off-topic (and erroneous, as in this case) rants. Please stay on topic or start your own blog.
Thread Topic: Rating system for bloodless draws.
My comment: Applying this rating system to determine which player's career as world champion is most distinguished for "bloodless draws" and to name the rating system for that person.
If I had suggested that the world champion most distinguished for bloodless draws was "Wilhelm Steinitz" rather than "Gary Kasparov" and if I had suggested renaming the ChickenFactor the "SteinitzFactor" would my comment have been banished as an "off-topic rant?"
I'm not going to play childish games. It was not banished, it has been moved to the appropriate place so your goal of diverting this and every thread into your world of Kasparov bashing is not fulfilled. Your post made only gratuitous mention of the topic. If it had been a once-sentence jibe, fine. Brevitysoulwit. It's called "signal-to-noise ratio."
Chessplayers, like other humans, try to act in their own best interest.
If a player concludes that a short draw is in his best interests, then he'll agree to a short draw, especially when big money or the World Championship is at stake. Rather than shaming players whose only sin is acting in their own best interest under the circumstances, we ought to redouble our efforts to craft circumstances that will lead players to conclude that spirited, combative games are in their best interest.
A proposed ChickenFactor Rating System which awards the World Championship ChickenFactor crown to a legendary fighter like Kasparov for an overall match (Karpov-Kasparov 84-85) or for individual games (Kasparov-Kramnik 2000, games 7 and 13) might need to be re-examined.
One circumstance contributing to the ubiquity of short draws in top tournaments is that players reasonably prefer "keeping their powder dry," saving their best efforts and killer innovations for World Championship events. If the top touraments were incorporated into a new World Championship Cycle we might see more fighting and less short draws in those events.
A circumstance favoring short draws in World Championship matches occurs whenever the player in the lead has the white pieces. The white player wants to "shorten the match", the black player wants to take his shot with white the next day, and a short draw is in the best interests of both players.
To eliminate black's motive for playing for a draw, to amerliorate the advantage of white's first move, let us, as an experiment, reduce white's time on the chessclock.
Let's try it out for Kramnik-Kasparov 2006. Or Kramnik-Anand 2006. For Game One Kramnik sets white's time control at whatever he chooses, from one minute to the full two hours. His opponent then chooses whether to play black or white. For Game Two, Kramnik's opponent sets white's time control and Kramnik chooses whether to play black or white.
This system would theoretically eliminate the "automatic" short draws where a match leader is playing the white pieces. It would be interesting to see whether such a system would work in practice.
It doesn't look too hard to calculate the BCF from a script which reads PGN files. Rule 6 would be easier if I could remember what symmetrical and locked pawn positions were - I think I need to read those PDFs Mig keeps sending.
The others would be hard to automate unless you had access to a database of the tournament, positions at the time of the game etc. and (for some of them) access to a reasonably strong chess engine, for determining imminent danger, winning position etc.
I could probably do the basic stuff; people like ChessBase would be in an excellent position to do all of the rules, if they so desired. :)
Hastings used a time handicap system this year, actually. From what I can tell, draws and wins by black were about the same as usual, oddly. I'm posting a separate item about it. From this year's Hastings rules:
"The rate of play shall be 40 moves in the first 70 minutes for White and 90 minutes for Black, plus 20 minutes extra for all the remaining moves; adding on one minute per move from the first. This shall apply throughout all rounds in both tournaments."
I've already been calculating a "fighter rating list" for GMs based on a slightly modified Chicken Factor concept for quite some time (apologies for lifting the idea). Actually I've posted some of the results on the message boards, most recently in this thread: www.chessninja.com/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=6;t=000676
The full list is available on my chess statistics page: members.aon.at/sfischl/stat.html
Mig, I'm not suprised that the draws didnt change. IMO the modified time controls are simply a transformation of the equal chances over a series of games with equal whites and blacks (more chance with white and less with black which evens out over a number of games) into equal chances in a single game (advantage of white is nullified because of less time). In fact I would expect more draws that way. Instead of 1 and 0 for example, its more likely to be 1/2 and 1/2 in two games.
You're right, Mig and d. Giving additional time to black won't discourage short draws. Grandmasters often draw after twenty moves when white's advantage has dissipated. My ill-advised suggestion would dissipate white's advantage from the get-go. Ooops. So how about giving a time advantage to WHITE!? Then, at move twenty, when white's first-move advantage has dissipated a big clock advantage might motivate him to play on.
Actually I thought equalizing colors at the start could, or should over the long run, lead to MORE decisive games. One of the biggest problems now is that that a draw with black is considered a good result. Many players will agree to a draw with black even if they are in a slightly better position just because they have black.
This is classic stock market chess. You maximize your advantages by taking the short draw with black so you have more energy for your game with white. That you have black the next day does lead some players to play on in equal positions with white, but I don't think this compensates at all. Again, playing on without a clear advantage is simply wrong according to stock market chess.
But if there is no discernable advantage from the start (20 minutes vs the first move), playing to get one might make sense. Or maybe the SEC mentality is too strong as Greg suggests, and having to fight for an advantage from an equal position is just too depressing. In that case, things are far beyond the Chicken Factor and move minimums and/or other rule changes will be required.
I was wondering, with all the talk of cheap super-GM draws, whether we'd see the Return of the Chicken Factor. Excellent.
«I had added a bunch of optional subjective factors, although I now think they are superfluous for the same reason.»-mig
On the other hand, it's a lot funnier with those factors included.
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