The FIDE rating list we love to ignore, the quarterly, is up. TWIC has the most useful grid up here. Call me old fashioned, but the FIDE rating formula is not dynamic enough to make three months very interesting. July list item here.
Only a few players who are remarkably active in the period ever have much to show. This time one of those players was Magnus Carlsen, who played 46 games. He is now two points under 2700 and still hasn't turned 16 yet. His peer Sergey Karjakin showed some growing pains and lost a few points. The top ten is the usual suspects. Aronian came down to earth a bit. Kramnik moved up to =3-4 with Svidler. He has 30 points to make up to get near Anand at #2 but so far he's doing a good job of moving up while bringing #1 Topalov down. Speaking of, that game 5 forfeit doesn't count on their ratings, as per rule 5.1 of the FIDE Handbook. Unplayed games don't count.
As I mentioned in July, the top ten today looks remarkably like that of five years ago. Other than Aronian's entry and Kasparov's exit, it's usual suspects. The average age of the top ten has gone up steadily if you don't count the sudden disappearance of the oldest man on it a few months ago. The squeaky voice of change is calling, however, as right outside the gates we find Radjabov, Mamedyarov, Navara, and a bit further down the inevitable Carlsen and Karjakin. Who will be the first of the new generation to take up permanent residence in the top ten?
mig says:
"The FIDE rating list we love to ignore, the quarterly, is up. TWIC has the most useful grid up here. Call me old fashioned, but the FIDE rating formula is not dynamic enough to make three months very interesting."
shakespeare says:
Thou like a woman doth complain over much.
I predict pretty much nothing will stop Carlsen. But then again, so do most other commentators.
Carlsen is only 52 point shy of Kramnik at the moment. That's less difference than between Topy and Vlad!
What about this Afromeev guy? Just your regular 2600 player: not interested in the GM title (or the IM title for that matter), not interested in playing outside his backyard (Tula/Russia)... Baburin wrote about Afromeev's rating fraud already some years ago (CT-300, 3 September 2001 - http://www.chesstoday.net/issues/CT-300.pdf). Since last list (July 2006), however, he has been a top-100, but nevertheless the only comments on him were of the kind "oh, a FM among the GMs at the top-100... how odd". Will Mr. Afromeev "be allowed" to raise to 2700 to only then be noticed?
...
Or are we actually before the strongest low-profile non-GM/IM above 50 years old player in the world?
One more detail - check the calculations for his October 2006 rating at the FIDE site. Interestingly enough, a tournament in which he got 7 ELO pts (Tula Region Final Ch), was computed twice. So, 14 pts from just one tournament... perhaps trying to overcome the "not dynamic enough" formula hehe...
Chess just made it to main page main headline on yahoo.com. Is this good or bad for chess,!? or ?!
Chess now has the same status as 250km/h hurricanes, 9.2 Richter earthquakes, 6-mile high volcanic eruptions and carpet bombing on innocent civilians by superpower (you know who) armed forces.
Yyaaahooo!!!
Carlsen's meteoric rise is looking highly Kasparov- or Fischer-like. The lad has a very bright future ahead of him, no doubt.
Hey,
Your link is wrong.
TWIC has the most useful grid up here
He, he... Mr. Afromeev hac managed to repeat the success of the great Romanian GM Alexandru Crisan - elo 2635. But he still has a goal - beating Crisans amazing 33. place in the World standings. Go, go, go Mr. Afromeev! Tula must be so very proud of their guy!
Interesting...
In the July 2000 rating list, there were 10 2700+. Now, there are 20. 100% increase within 6 years.
So, predictions: within three years, we'll have 3 permanent 2800 players and 25 more 2700. In five years, there'll be a "top 5 2800"
"Carlsen is only 52 point shy of Kramnik at the moment. That's less difference than between Topy and Vlad!"
Carlsen looks to be unstoppable, with a good result at Tal Memorial (Cat 20) in November, he will cross 2700.
"So, predictions: within three years, we'll have 3 permanent 2800 players"
If so, Carlsen might be one of these, as a Junior!.
btw:
Kramnik has gained 15 points so far into the match. That brings him within 10-15 points of #2 Anand!
... and another piece of wild speculation:
According to this page: http://members.shaw.ca/redwards1/
ratings inflate at the rate of about 4 pts per year. Assuming that Carlsen stays with chess and indeed fulfills the expectations of those who compare him to Kasparov, he might very well be the first to break the 2900 barrier: If he reaches a skill that equates to Kasparov's 2851 rating, then you have to add to that rating the inflation that occurred in the meantime.
Assuming he reaches his peak sometime in his early 30ies, that will be about 20 years, or 80pts due to inflation. :o))
Carlsen also has advantage over Kasparov in that he has more time to develop. Ten years from now he is only 25 years old and has at least ten years to compete at highest level.
Of course there can be others that have not realized their full potential yet. For example David Navara is only 21 years old and his rating is 2725. In the Olympiads he beat for example Svidler in a very nice game.
Forgive my nationalism, but is there an up-and-coming American on the horizon? Is Nakamura our only hope?
Nice to see Gata Kamsky (USA) back in the top 20. A mover and a shaker, is he.
Ricardo,
I think based on style of play alone, Kamsky is a better prospect than Nakamura, who tends to play a little loose and risky. That style is fine for Tournament play, but tends to betray in Match play.
Kamsky may also just be hitting his stride at the right time. I really hope the Candidate matches go off...
Peace...
Gata stands at 2705, having broken this barrier once again; VERY nice!
Hotep,
Maliq
Carlsen is an intriguing prospect, but we must be careful of extrapolating. Sometimes players "hit a wall," and stop improving. A few years ago, Ponomariov and Radjabov looked like they were headed for the élite...but they haven't gotten there.
Biology must eventually catch up to the top players, but Kasparov remained #1 into his 40s. Kramnik and Topalov, both 31, could still be up there for a long time.
"I think based on style of play alone, Kamsky is a better prospect than Nakamura, who tends to play a little loose and risky. That style is fine for Tournament play, but tends to betray in Match play."
Nearly all competitive chess is in tournaments. The current WC match is an anomaly — how many of those have there been in the last 5 years?
I think Nakamura's problem is that his loose, risky style tends to get punished by top players, though he can get away with it against lower-rated opposition.
Kamsky clearly has superb chess instincts, but I don't know whether his opening preparation is good enough to get him back into the top 10. He has obviously done very well after the long layoff, but he is competing against people who have remained active during that time, and have no rust to shake off.
Carlsen is already here. Typical (and correctly!) of young players he emphasizes tactics. With experience he shall deepen his positional understanding. He has a future as a chess player. The question is : does CHESS have a future for humans??? Or is it a trap for those with talent?
Even worse, it's a trap for some of us with NO talent. :)
Mark,
I didn't make my context clear. Obviously Kamsky is very strong and playing well, but he's 32. Nakamura is 19. Is there another American under 20 to watch for?
"Carlsen is an intriguing prospect, but we must be careful of extrapolating."
Even if Carlsen slows down and improve at the same rate as Radjabov, Carlsen will be Top 3 as a Junior.
A wall of bricks will not stop this kid, only a pretty girl can! :)
If Kramnik has won 15 points so far, then Topalov is below 2800 at this very moment ?
yes.
Obviously everybody's watching Carlsen's rise - and I wish the kid shakes up the top soon!
But it's great to see Navara so close to the top too, Czech him out! ;)
Gelfand wrote about his training match with Navara recently...
Navara will be the best player in the World. He is autistic and has sort of rainman talent for chess, and it's quite possible his condition allows him to concentrate solely on the game and train it much more intensively than any of his colleagues...
He has been playing close to 2800 level lately. He was smashing 2600 players like they were pray to play with. His only loss game against Aronian, the opening trap he fell into.
He will be a 2850 super player in 5 years time.
Navara is moving upward, but just like Radjabov has done, he will be passed by Carlsen and Karjakin too.
Carlsen is 200 ELO stronger, than Navara was at the same age.
Navara is moving upward, but just like Radjabov has done, he will be passed by Carlsen and Karjakin too.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Radjabov hasn't been passed by Carlsen or Karjakin yet. He is still easily the youngest of the top 20, so I don't know why people are talking about him like he is a has-been already.
cs
My statement was a reply to:
"Navara will be the best player in the World."
IMO, Radjabov, Carlsen and Karjakin will pass Navara in strenght, Radjabov has already done it.
Carlsen is the strongest 15 year old ever seen, so he might be pretty strong at 18 too. :)
Ah, I misunderstood. In that case, never mind.
I want to bring my comments to future stars:
As for Carlsen Magnus (he is certainly the most impressive riser today): this and next are the first years when he is gonna play against top players , let's say 9-12 games in main tournaments (and each game with 27xx) like Corus and Wilk-an-Zee (if I spell it right).
Before that he played 25xx, and 26xx players (with one or two per tournament with high 26xx or 27th. He never was exposed to group A or plays with top 10 on tournaments. In my opinion, Carlsen will at lest temporarily hit the wall near 2720+/10. I do not believe he goes like "knife through the butter" through top elite like he did it through 26xx and be 27550-2760 by the end of 2007. Time will show.
But look on Fisher- how many time and for how long he was severely beaten when he started to play elite. Computers and internet do reduce this period (being beaten by top 10, should i say top 20-25 today). But I hardly believe that this period be shorter than 1 or even 2 years.
As for Kamsky. He is definitely a talent. But Gata need a team to become champion. Does he have a team ?
In my opinion next few years we will see a champion from first 20 list. It can be either Morozevich (who can acquire some energy for stability from cosmos) or even guys in 30th who already have a wisdom and wait for their showtime. Current champion must have a team.
I highly doubt Topalov will stay near the top any longer (he has few days for goodwill to give a point back- does not matter whether Danailov conditions are that "he always listen to him" in decisions outside the board).
It is quite probable that Kramnik stays unbeaten for the next few years, like Kasparov did.
I note the absence from the list of Karpov. Was he too inactive? I see he played games in the July 06 period, so why is he not listed in the top 100?
Look here:
http://fide.com/ratings/id.phtml?event=4100026
I do find Karpov appears on the FIDE website, rated 2668, which ought to place him at #40, but he does not appear in the top 100 list.
What's up?
re Karpov, I see, MC at TWIC says Karpov had only 3 games in a year period. Less than 4 games in a year for a player makes him officially inactive.
Inactivity indeed, tjallen. Karpov had to have 4 rated games JUL06-SEP06 (because of previous "inactivity") and only had 3. Time to enjoy retirement, perhaps?
OKey: "As for Carlsen Magnus (he is certainly the most impressive riser today): this and next are the first years when he is gonna play against top players, let's say 9-12 games in main tournaments (and each game with 27xx) like Corus and Wilk-an-Zee"
For the record, Carlsen has already faced some of the top guns, here are some highlights:
-World Cup match vs Aronian(2004), Aronian needed tie-breaks against Carlsen (13)
-World Cup 2005: Youngest Candidate ever, just after his 15th birthday
-1st table at Olympics 2006: Carlsen 2820 TPR, with an impressive win vs Adams.
-Biel 2006 (Cat 19): Carlsen went +2 vs Moro.
When Carlsen hit 2550, he stayed there for a year, so yes, he will hit the wall again, perhaps now at 2700, and stay there for a year or so.
Karjakin and Carlsen are heading for the top, if they don't make top 10 as juniors, I will be very surprised.
As you say, there have been several outstanding players who appeared to go through 2600's like a hot knife through butter, but who ran into the brick wall of superior 2700 resistance. Morozevich comes to mind: crushing against 2600s, (relatively) indifferent against 2700s.
As people point out, Carlsen will also likely hit this ceiling of diminishing returns. Still, I'd be shocked if he's not top-10 within the next three years.