If you haven't already, it's time to bow to our new Chinese overlords. After they're done beating the Russians at chess I hope they'll come over and buy whatever is left of the United States. Yow, and not the one playing on board 3. Are they the Olympiad gold medal favorites for men and women? Or will old-time tradition and voodoo prevail?
Learn Mandarin Now
71 Comments
To be honest I am surprised that it took them 20 years to go this far. China is a country of how many people? Its only natural that among that number there will be a few who would know how to play the game.
No need for voodoo just yet. Looking at the Russian team I have to say that’s not the best they can field; and the Russian women beat their opposites (to keep the losing margin sort of respectable).
Knowing the Chinese I am sure they had super special preparations with a set goal to win; its focus and determination at its highest level. Something which is clearly missing from the Russians these days.
By the way what is happening to Svidler?
China will not make the top 3 in the Olympiads. Those places are for Russia, Ukrain and Armenia - not necessarily in that order.
Duncan
The top Chinese men beat the Russian second-stringers, but it is clear they are getting scary good.
"By the way what is happening to Svidler?"
After being attacked by the Mig bug, he looks set to become the best online commentator in the history of chess (his broadcasts are truly AWESOME), but as sports fans know this is not a good omen for your active professional career...
Only joking of course, I'm sure he'll be back soon with some great results.
Speaking of learning Mandarin, this on the WaMu collapse with a funny caption:
http://wonkette.com/403061/they-are-coming
Russian team was missing their top 2, alright (Moro and Kramnik, in whichever order you prefer)...but still I can't see calling the team that played "second-stringers." It looked to me more like the first-string team, minus Kramnik and Moro. Or is there some other missing Russian super-GM I'm forgetting about?
Fair enough, those who played were good. But I'd still call them second string when compared to the best Russia could send out there. Only two of the top five were present, and as was mentioned sans the top two players. Replacements for the top two players were and fourth best players were respectively number 6, 9, and 18. China had a much better showing. All the top four were there, and number 5 was replaced by number 8.
I'm not a fantasy football fan by any means, but let's take a theoretical RUS vs. CHN top five match.
1 Morozevich, Alexander 2788
1 Kramnik, Vladimir 2788
3 Svidler, Peter 2738
4 Grischuk, Alexander 2728
5 Jakovenko, Dmitry 2709
1 Bu, Xiangzhi 2710
2 Ni, Hua 2705
3 Wang, Yue 2704
4 Wang, Hao 2691
5 Zhang, Pengxiang 2643
Where are you putting your money?
Clearly, national pride wasn't exactly on the line for one of these countries. Although, Morosevich, Kramnik and Grischuk are all kinda bohemian. Maybe they just couldn't be convinced to go without governmental mandate.
Svidler scored 8P/10R in rapid section. Great result.
Russia didn't field their best team, but their best younger generation (except Grischuk). While the best chinese are all young. It might foreshadow what will happen in the near future between the best of both countries.
The thing about the top chinese players is their youth and the progress they are making. For example, the 5th board Li Chao is only 19, and not yet 2600, but already beating 2 Russian 2700 rateds in this match.
I don't see a comparable progress with the Armenian or Ukrainian new generation. The Russians have Jakovenko, Alekseev, etc, but these are exactly the players beaten by the Chinese.
Duncan,
On what basis are you making your prediction?
China was 2nd in the last Olympiad.
Besides the average rating of their top 4 is higher than the Armenians, and not that much lower than Ukrainians and Russians.
With Karjakin and Ponomariev writing the future of Ukrainian chess off seems at least odd to me.
We'll see how good the Chinese do in the Olympiad.
As somebody else said, it's actually kind of normal to see the Chinese among the top, once they put serious effort into it, which they seem to be doing recently.
Currently China has only about 20 GMs, a meager number compared to the traditional chess countries, which reflects the recency of their serious efforts. But the average ratings of their top 10 or top 5 are already up there, 3rd in the world.
Armenians have been taking a lot of medals in recent Olympiads/Team WCHs. Meanwhile, our team was never near the top-3 regarding average team ratings.
I hope this year Russians are going to CARE A LOT about winning, which seemed not to be the case the last time. If this happens, they are favorites, closely followed by Ukraine. Armenia, China, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Israel-we can fight for the bronze.
Henry,
It's true China finished 2nd in the last Olympiads. But if you count the points according to matches (like it will be in this olympiad), then China will not make the top 10.
Moreover I think they lack the experience of a team event. By the way, I still think they will be a force to reckon with.
Duncan
Henry,
You and I have been on the same side of this discussion on the DD before and bloggers like Duncan are not convinced yet.
I'm not sure where he gets "lack the experience" from. They have been playing team events for two decades and faring very well. They beat Russia last year, have beaten the U.S., England and France in recent times.
Duncan,
We can all go back and change the rules and say a different result would have happened, but such debates are not useful. China played by the rules and took silver. Russia did not medal despite having the strongest team on paper.
This year China will vie for gold along with Russia, but I'm picking China for the gold. They are young, unified and still improving. Wang Yue is downright scary as is Wang Hao. Hou Yifan is going to be knocking on Judit Polgar's door in a few years.
I don't see Russia winning gold this year either. I did pick Armenia to win in 2006 based on the rise of Aronian (who I interviewed) and Sargissian. They will miss Karen Asrian badly. I also picked the Ukrained in 2004 for the gold and they will be in the hunt. I look for Azerbaijan to be the big surprise.
I you may be picking on tradition and rating.
All,
More threads on China issue...
http://www.chessninja.com/dailydirt/2006/03/xu_yuhua_womens_champ.htm
http://www.chessninja.com/dailydirt/2006/07/quickly_quickly.htm
http://www.chessninja.com/dailydirt/2008/04/reenter_the_dragon.htm
Duncan,
If the last olympiad was counted based on matches, Russia, who came with their full strength, would not have made top 10, and would still be lower than China. So what's the basis of predicting Russia to be top 3?
China lacked team experience? Which chess news have you been reading? In the last couple of years, China has been pretty active team-wise - and winning!
In case you didn't notice, the Chinese effort is very dedicated and systematic. In the last Olympiad, China lost matches against USA and France. And it's not a coincidence that those are precisely the teams they'd challenged - and beaten - recently.
The thing about China is that they keep on improving. The average rating of the top 5 of Russia is high but is not improving. The average rating of the top 5 of Armenia is now lower after they lost Asrian. But the average top 5 of China has been improving. The team they will field in the next Olympiad will have a definitely higher average rating than the one on the previous olympiad.
And they kept on adding new strong young players.
In the last match against Russia, they included the young Li Chao, who proved himself by beating Jakovenko and Alekseev.
OK, enough talk. You said China will not make top 10 in the next olympiad? Let's all remember your words and see what happens :-).
Russia and Ukraine are still rating favourites but the rest of the world is catching up like Azerbijan,Armenia and China.
Don't forget there is Hungary,Israel,India and USA that could easily medal given they all have
good anchors and elite GMs at the #2 and 3 boards.
Notice the Chinese and the Azerbijan team are all in their early-20s. This could be decisive when teams are playing so many games in the Olympiad.
Henry / Daaim,
Ok. I admit I was harsh on the team inexperience comment. But other teams will be well prepared of the Chinese threat and I think it will be hard for them (the Chinese).
Russia's bad placing in 2006 was a bit of a fluke and I am pretty sure it will not happen again. I think the players will be under more motivation this time to place well.
Henry, a correction about my comment. I said that China will not make the top 3 (not top 10). I think they'll finish 4th or 5th.
Where can I put my money? :-)
Duncan
China has a good team, but hey-Morozevich who has been always scary, is No. 2 in the World now. They have a couple of younger players - Alekseev, Jakovenko, and Kramnik is Kramnik (btw, will he be playing?).
Ukraine in turn is stronger than ever, with Karjakin maruring, Ivanchuk playing the best chess of his long career, and Ponomariev more or less keeping his level. Whom will you put your money on if China plays Ukraine?
Armenia is probably weaker than 2 years ago; Asrian was an excellent team player. He was very solid and had very good technique. He could hold very well with black, and with white he would get a microscopically better position and watch the other boards-if the teammates were in trouble-he would try to grind down the opponent; otherwise he would just take a draw.
I remember how China went down against Armenia last time. Aronian had white-he got an advantageous position against Bu and couldn't win it. Asrian with white played it safe. Akopian and Sargissian had black, and there was a Scotch game on both boards-and the same sideline; the Chinese had obviously prepared very well.
Then Akopian in some unbelievable manner outplayed his opponent, and Sargissian held an endgame which seemed unholdable-and he made it look so easy.
Also let's not forget how they went down against Russia in the Team Champ., when they needed 1 point out of 4 to win the gold. Russia smashed them 3.5:0.5 and claimed gold.
China is good, but not classy enough for gold yet. Next time, maybe.
Each team will be prepared, but my point is that China currently is improving rapidly, much more so than any other team. The average rating of their top 4 players has improved more than 90 points since the last Olympiad! No other country has improved that much recently.
Two years ago, in Turin, Wang Yue hadn't reached 2600, and Wang Hao had not entered the scene yet. In the next rating list, Wang Yue will be in the world top 10, and Wang Hao very close to 20, with Bu and Ni in the neighborhood.
The Chinese team in 2006 was already good enough to get Silver. But the next one is even much stronger.
Other teams are also improving, but only 1 or 2 players, like Ukraine's Karjakin, or Russia's Jakovenko and Alekseev. But not 4 players at once gaining about 90 points each, as the Chinese did in the last 2 years.
Of course, Russia and Ukraine still have better rating averages, but the gap is closing. I think the difference between the average top 4 Russians and Chinese is currently less than 50 points. As we have seen in previous Olympiads, this difference is not always that significant.
The Chinese team went down 0.5 - 3.5 against Russia in the Team Champ. But when was that? Almost 3 years ago, with a team that had an average rating of only 2615, against Russians with average 2710. Not surprisingly, they lost. And yet, that low rated Chinese team still got Silver, ahead of Ukraine and Armenia.
Next Olympiad, the Chinese are coming with 4 players rated around top 20. It's not the same team. Not that the previous Chinese teams were bad, but the next one is definitely even better.
When talking about top Chinese players, especially the young ones, it's almost completely irrelevant to discuss their results 2-3 years ago. The change has been tremendous.
To the above, Alekseev is not playing - The Russian team as announced is Kramnik, Morozevich, Svidler, Grischuk and Jakovenko.
playjunior,
Only Kramnik did well for Russia in 2006 Olympiad and they came in what... 6th?? In 2004, they got silver. They will get bronze this year.
If I had to choose a winner in Ukraine-China... I'd choose China. Volokitin has disappeared and what has become of Eljanov? They will have the same team from 2006 when they didn't place.
Henry has already stated the strong points and I have been arguing the same for years. The point is that China is on the rise while all other top feds are stagnant and not getting stronger. Oh... and there is more talent coming up in China that we don't hear of often. How many knew of Li Chao last year? The Chinese women are the same. Going for 6th gold in a row! Domination.
Also from Asia... watch out for Vietnam in the future.
Can someone tell me how the American players are doing? I new to the chess scene, and I don`t know, but would like to know. Thanks.
If you're going to quote someone on Kos, find someone who knows what they're talking about. The first sentence in the second paragraph has McCain in the Senate in 1982. McCain was elected to the House of Representatives in 1982, and wasn't sworn in until January of 1983. He wasn't elected to the Senate until 1986, and didn't get sworn in until 1987.
I meant Chinese women going for 5th in a row. They have medaled in the past seven or eight Olympiad tournaments.
As for the Russian team, it is still the strongest on paper. But Olympiad history has shown that they could lose matches. Even when Kasparov was on board 1, they did lose and draw several matches.
Kramnik and Morozevich are still great players, of course. However their teammates don't seem to be better than the Chinese. Look at the following record from the last 2 years, between particular Russians against the Chinese players who are going to play in the Olympiad.
Svidler +0-2=5 (lost vs Wang Yue & Ni Hua)
Grischuk +0-1=4 (lost vs Wang Hao)
Jakovenko +3-3=10 (lost vs Bu, Wang Hao, Li Chao)
In general, it seems that the Chinese 3rd and 4th board (Ni, Wang Hao, Li) could win against any country's player.
The hardest for the Chinese might be the 1st and 2nd boards. But then again, in the last Olympiad, Bu on board 1 (with only 2640 at that time) managed +4 without a loss against opponents that include Kramnik, Anand, Aronian, and Kamsky. And in Dresden, their 1st board will be Wang Yue who has shown he's ready to play against anybody. There's no reason for them to be pessimistic.
I just checked the Dresden olympiad website.
Ukraine will come without Ponomariov, but all the other major contenders are fielding their best. Hungary with both Leko and Polgar. From the top 10 players, only Anand will be missing. This will be interesting.
Based on the average rating of players, the order is
1. Russsia
2. Ukraine
3. Azerbaijan
4. China
5. Hungary
6. Israel
However notice: this is based on the July rating list. Using the upcoming October list, China will probably be 3rd.
Also notice: the average of the Chinese is lowered by the inclusion of Li Chao who is only 2590. But I believe he is currently underrated.
Russia can still potentially beat China 3-1 in the individual match up given Kramnik might settle for a draw with Yue I feel Moro and Svidler can do a lot of damage with Bu and Ni. Grischuk can outplay Hao on his better days. Another key thing is in the past the Chinese were dark horses but now their ratings more or less reflect their true strengths so a lot of weak GMs are going to play for draws against the top Chinese GMs which will no doubt result to a lot of 2-2 ties. On paper the Chinese are fielding a 2700 team but maybe it is just a paper tiger =)
We'll see. To me it is obvious that a team where a player of Ponomariev's class gets board 4 (if he would be playing) is something scary. They will not be playing "who will be hypothetically stronger 20 years later", they will be playing "who is stronger now". Ukraine is. Russia is also strong but looking at the team Russia is less "stable" than Ukraine. Morozevich, Svidler are rather inconsistent. Meanwhile if they are on their game they can go +10 together.
Daaim, your argument about Kramnik's performance in 2006 and their 6th place is ridiculous. Do you want to imply that it was due to his 2950 TRP they got 6th place? What is the connection?
Ichiro,
Your whole speculation can be turned upside down.
China can potentially beat Russia 3-1 in the individual match up given Wang Yue might settle for a draw with Kramnik, I feel Bu and Ni can do a lot of damage with Moro and Svidler. Wang Hao can outplay Grischuk on his better days.
LOL.
playjunior,
Ukraine is stronger than China now, but only by about 20 Elo points, if we take the average of the top 4 boards for each team. That difference doesn't seem to big to me. That's according to the July rating list. In the upcoming October rating list, the difference will be even smaller, perhaps about 10 points.
Ponomariov is strong, but he doesn't seem to be much stronger than any of the top 4 boards of China. It is scary if a player of his class is only 4th board, but China's own 4th board is only 12 points lower than him.
By the way, Ukraine's team is not that stable either. In the last 4 olympiads the got no. 3, 13, 1, 6
The last comment to playjunior was mine.
By accident I also typed his name as the author LOL.
playjunior,
You missed the point. Kramnik played well and his teammates didn't... that was all I was saying.
Looking at ratings is not that reliable. You say it is scary that a player of Ponomariov's strength is playing board four is scary. True indeed, but they had the same team last Olympiad. I also remember the Calvia Olympiad where Ponomariov was hanging out in the press room most of the time. I was wondering what he was doing.
We have to look a TEAM chemistry, not ratings. Which teams have the best chemistry now? That's been the mistake with picking Russia to win gold every year. The Ukraine had incredible chemistry in 2004 due to the rise of Karjakin, Volokitin and overall anticipation of progress leading up to the tournament. Armenia succeeded in 2006 due to Levon Aronian's rise and for similar reasons. I watched Armenia around the Olympic village and they were loose and easy-going. Aronian had just vaulted to #3 in the world. It was actually incredible to witness this in person. China may be that team now as well as Azerbaijan... both teams have a lot to be excited about. Azerbaijan has been disappointing, but this is their year perhaps.
Leading up to the last two Olympiad I made predictions and didn't get them all right, but I got the two winners because of what I saw in the chemistry at the time.
http://www.thechessdrum.net/tournaments/Olympiad2004/predictions.html
http://www.thechessdrum.net/tournaments/Olympiad2006/predictions.html
playjunior,
You missed the point. Kramnik played well and his teammates didn't... that was all I was saying.
Looking at ratings is not that reliable. You say it is scary that a player of Ponomariov's strength is playing board four is scary. True indeed, but they had the same team last Olympiad. I also remember the Calvia Olympiad where Ponomariov was hanging out in the press room most of the time. I was wondering what he was doing.
We have to look a TEAM chemistry, not ratings. Which teams have the best chemistry now? That's been the mistake with picking Russia to win gold every year. The Ukraine had incredible chemistry in 2004 due to the rise of Karjakin, Volokitin and overall anticipation of progress leading up to the tournament. Armenia succeeded in 2006 due to Levon Aronian's rise and for similar reasons. I watched Armenia around the Olympic village and they were loose and easy-going. Aronian had just vaulted to #3 in the world. It was actually incredible to witness this in person. China may be that team now as well as Azerbaijan... both teams have a lot to be excited about. Azerbaijan has been disappointing, but this is their year perhaps.
Leading up to the last two Olympiad I made predictions and didn't get them all right, but I got the two winners because of what I saw in the chemistry at the time.
http://www.thechessdrum.net/tournaments/Olympiad2004/predictions.html
http://www.thechessdrum.net/tournaments/Olympiad2006/predictions.html
Yeah, India was the highest rated I think and it was a disaster because of bad chemistry - the players all didn't even stay at the same hotel.
I had doubts about Russia in the past, but this time I have a feeling Russia will be the heavy favorites. I would prefer Alekseyev to Svidler on Russia's roster, as Svidler doesn't seem to be in great shape, but of course Svidler is still as good a player on the 3rd board as they come. Ponomariov will not play for Ukraine and that will be a big loss. China is probably overrated, and they are likely to have problems on top two boards against other top teams. With all the hype about China, they are still considerably weaker than other top teams and they should be happy if they medal at all. I predict Russia will take the gold, followed by Azerbaijan and the Ukraine.
"Ponomariov is strong, but he doesn't seem to be much stronger than any of the top 4 boards of China. It is scary if a player of his class is only 4th board, but China's own 4th board is only 12 points lower than him."
And China's top board is only 17 points higher than him. China is deep, but they are lacking on top boards, relative to the other teams.
Btw, Alekseyev is higher rated than all the Chinese, but one, and he didn't even make the Russian team.
Russianbear:
"China is probably overrated"
Can you prove this?
"With all the hype about China, they are still considerably weaker than other top teams"
I don't see how China is weaker at all than Azerbaijan, Armenia, Hungary, Israel, etc. Even compared with Ukraine, I don't see how they are "considerably" weaker.
"I predict Russia will take the gold, followed by Azerbaijan and the Ukraine."
Let's remember you prediction, and see.
Russianbear:
"And China's top board is only 17 points higher than him."
But China's top board is higher than any Ukrainian, except Ivanchuk. The point is that except for Ivanchuk, all of the top 4 Ukrainians are within 25 points from all the top 4 Chinese.
"China is deep, but they are lacking on top boards, relative to the other teams."
This might be the case. Board 1 is always tough. But I think with Wang Yue, who's now no. 10 in the world, on board 1, they are not in a bad shape. If he just manages to hold draws on board 1, his teammates could take care of the rest. And it seems to me very plausible that he could do that. I believe he could do even better than that.
Also remember in the last Olympiad, Bu Xiangzhi, who was only 2640 at that time, managed +4 without a loss on board 1, against opponents that included Kramnik, Anand, Aronian, and Kamsky.
Russianbear:
"And China's top board is only 17 points higher than him."
Actually, China's top board is 22 points higher than Ponomariov.
Russianbear:
"Btw, Alekseyev is higher rated than all the Chinese, but one, and he didn't even make the Russian team."
Yes but the other 3 are very close.
I believe that Ivanchuk, Kramnik, Morozevich, Aronian, Karjakin-are players of bigger caliber, higher class than Wang, Bu or anyone in Chinese team.
I believe that individual class of players matters. For Russia, this is especially true-when you lose the previous Olympiad in the worst possible way, you get angry. Last time, they obviously didn't care enough, this time they probably will. Only team that has a comparable roster is Ukraine. All the other are underdogs.
Good that Hungary is coming with a strong team, they will put up a nice fight for a medal I presume.
Just a couple more points:
Russia should start taking it more seriously and try to use the top people more. Two years ago, the top combination of players (Kramnik, Svidler, Grischuk, Morozevich) only played in 2 rounds, as opposed to the top finisher Armenia, who stuck with the same 4 players in the (last) 9 rounds of the tournament in a row, or Ukraine, who used Ivanchuk in every single round Russia seemed more intent on playing fresh people than on actually winning the event.
Also, to those who say China has improved while others have remained stagnant, I don't know how true it is. Even Russia seems to have improved. Kramnik was only 2729 2 years ago - though it was only due to the illness-related slump, of course. But Morozevich has definitely improved in the last two years, and so have people like Jakovenko and Alekseyev (though the latter didn't make the team). Case can be made Svidler has gotten worse, though. In any case, Russia seems to have a stronger team this year than 2 years ago. The average rating of the Russian team will perhaps be higher than that of the highest rated player on the team 2 years ago and is apparently the highest team average in history. And with Ukraine and Armenia(?) not having their best possible teams, I think Russia is a heavy favorite.
playjunior:
"I believe that Ivanchuk, Kramnik, Morozevich, Aronian, Karjakin-are players of bigger caliber, higher class than Wang, Bu or anyone in Chinese team."
I wouldn't put Karjakin on that list. At least not yet. I don't remember anything spectacular he did. Good results, yes, but not spectacular. On the other hand, he's still pretty young and improving, so in a few years he might actually join that group, but not yet, as far as his current results goes.
As for the Olympiad, remember it is team event. For instance, Armenia has the superstrong Aronian, but the rest is not at that level.
Russianbear:
"Ukraine, who used Ivanchuk in every single round"
But they still ended 6th :-).
"Also, to those who say China has improved while others have remained stagnant, I don't know how true it is. Even Russia seems to have improved."
Russia improved, but China improved most.
One more point on China being overrated.
First of all, nobody has given me one good argument why this is true. Furthermore, I actually think they are often underrated. Take their 5th board in the next Olympiad, Li Chao. I strongly believe he is underrated. There are more exemples from the recent past.
Well, Ivanchuk played a lot on the gold medal winning Ukrainian team from 2 years back - he only skipped one round. There will be rest days during the Olympiad - I see no reason why top people on the Russian team (or other teams) should not play almost all of the rounds. If Kramnik plays 11-12 rounds, as opposed to 9, it will be that much easier for the rest of the team.
Li Chao may be underrated, but the extent of his underratedness is overrated :)
russianbear:
"Li Chao may be underrated, but the extent of his underratedness is overrated :)"
The first part of your sentence is clear enough (as you agreed on), but the second part remains to be seen.
It is interesting that Morozevich' pattern continues. He keeps winning points big time from 2600-level tournaments, but in almost every 2700-level event he takes part in, he would lose some rating points. As there are more 2600-level tournaments, the cumulative effect is a rating increase.
He needs a couple more 2600-level tournaments that he could dominate, avoid Corus or Linares, and he might find himself no. 1 on the rating list.
Chinese players are consistent in these team events. Not one player on the Russian side is sure to play well. The Anand match is sure to worsen V. Kramnik's play for a year. Moro is more. Svid is Svid. Is Jakovenko vs. Rublevsky/Bareev will be enough to put them in contention for a gold medal assuming these other players perform as they did in Turin?
LI CHAO
WANG HAO
WANG YUE
BU XIANGZHI
NI HUA
I doubt the Anand match will worsen Kramnik's play for a year, like DP said. Kramnik did play badly after the Leko match, but that was because he apparently contracted that illness of his during that match. He played well in the years following the Kasparov and Topalov matches - definitely well enough to be a force in an event like Olympiad. Yes, Russian team has several players who are inconsistant, but inconsistency implies some of them may actually be in good shape, too :) And I guess there is a limit to how badly those players can play. Morozevich has a reputation for wild insonsistency, but he has been rated in the top 4 for the last year, and in the top 6 since April 2007. He has actually been much more consistant lately. Jakovenko has been a solid 2700 lately, too. Grischuk is the lowest rated player on team Russia and he is a model of consistency. The only player on the Russian team who is consistently inconsistent is Svidler, but like I said, there must be a limit to how badly he can play. And as Svidler will probably play on lower boards this time, and they won't rely on him as much as before so his (possible) inconsistency isn't likely to be a big factor.
Put Moro on board 4.
Yeah, put Moro on board 4. Not a bad idea :-).
He will get close to 100% against such players.
The gain of that might be more than the loss of not putting him on board 1 or 2.
As for Svidler, Jakovenko, Grischuk, here are their scores against top Chinese players in the last 2 years.
Svidler +0-2=5 (lost vs Wang Yue & Ni Hua)
Grischuk +0-1=4 (lost vs Wang Hao)
Jakovenko +3-3=10 (lost vs Bu, Wang Hao, Li Chao)
So it seems that on board 3 and 4, the Chinese might have some chances. And on board 1, I don't think Wang Yue will easily lose, even against Kramnik or Moro.
The Chinese Women team has an average age of 18.
Is this some kind of record?
For the 2 lowest boards, they skipped many senior & higher rated players, to include two lower rated 17-year olds.
HOU YIFAN
ZHAO XUE
SHEN YANG
JU WENJUN
TAN ZHONGYI
No record. Polgar trio plus Madl won for Hungary in Thessalonika in 1988, with a team averaging about 16 or so, I think.
Grischuk is consistently keeping his rating, not dropping, but not improving either.
Early on, even before he turned 20, he made a rapid foray into the top 10. I thought he was going to make it as the next great Russian player. But then he stagnated, staying in a decent top 10-20 range, but not getting better than that, and surpassed by Aronian, Radjabov, Carlsen, Mamedyarov.
Now Jakovenko is making that move. Another one from the Grischuk generation. Let's see whether it's gonna be a long stay at the very top, or a Grischuk-type decent almost-top appearance.
russianbear,
Of course, inconsistency could mean the next performance could be either in good or bad shape. But if there are several inconsistent players in a team, what's the odds that all of them will be in good shape at the same event?
Also, even though there's a limit to how badly Moro or Svidler can play, just a few lost points might cost the medal, if other strong teams happen to be in their best shape.
This Russian team has the highest Elo average in olympiad history. But the difference between their average and the 2nd ranked team's average is smaller than in the previous olympiads.
Russia improved, but other teams did as well. Part of it is just overall rating inflation. A 2700 rating is not even enough to get into top 30 anymore.
Rank 10 and 25 in the world has only about 20 points difference, which amounts to less than +1 in 10 games.
I have checked the seedings at the official site, and it goes like this (if my calculations are correct, October rating list):
Men
1. Russia (2754)
2. Ukraine (2729)
3. China (2719)
4. Azerbajian
Women
=1. Russia (tie with Ukraine)
=1. Ukraine
3. China
4. Georgia
Make what u will of it.
Notes on the Olympiad:
1. Ponomariov isn't playing for the Ukraine team. (Nonetheless their remaining top four are enough for second seed.)
2. India's women's team would be 4th seed over Georgia if Koneru played. Anand's absence from the men's team takes them out of realistic medal contention.
3. China's teams leaves higher-rated oldsters at home again, in favor of young talent. No Xu Yuhua or Li Ruofan (both ~2490), and brought instead two 2390-rated 17yo girls. They also have the blind guy (Li Chao 2590) over higher rated veterans.
Otherwise no great surprises. Very glad the mighty Russian team will be at Dresden in full force.
More miscellaneous notes from the Dresden Olympiad site:
1. The US men's team expects to have all its top players. Looks like a medal contender.
2. No Susan Polgar on the U.S. women's team. Judit's once again playing for the strong Hungarian team. No sign of Zsofia - no surprise here.
3. Powerful team from Bulgaria headed by Topalov. For the first time Topalov gets a decent supporting cast.
4. Top ten seeds (I eye-balled the ratings, take it for what it's worth):
Russia, Ukraine, China, Azerbajian, France, Hungary, Bulgaria, Israel, Armenia, United States.
Somewhat below the top ten and probably not realistic medal contenders are: Germany, India, England, Netherlands.
If you only take the top 4 boards, the top seeds are:
Russia, Ukraine, China, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Bulgaria, Israel, France, Armenia, USA
If you take all players, the top seeds are:
Russia, Ukraine, China, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Israel, USA, Bulgaria, France, Armenia
Russia will medal but not golden. Jakovenko is a better fit than Rublevsky from 2006. Kramnik will not do as well as in 2006 and probably score +1 or +2. Morozevich has a tendancy to be careless in early rounds and nearly lost to an Alejandro Ramirez (not-yet-GM) of Costa Rica in round 1. Svidler was play solid and better than he has been playing lately. Grischuk will probably be the star.
Ratings may not matter as much in these events because of the team strategy. One may be ask to accept a draw against a lower-rated player for the advancement of the team.
Those top ten teams are definitely contenders to medal. Azerbaijan is the darling of the tournament and could surprise. I've predicted them near the top in the last two Olympiads, but they've let me down. Not this year!
The Russian players are very good in the Russian championship. They seem technically really impressive especially Alekseev and Jakovenko(latest round wins were very nice). I am not sure why they are not top ten players. Maybe chess at the top really is mostly about the opening, contrary to Dvoretsky's training.
Jakovenko IS a top 10 player. He is currently #10 with the rating of 2737.
Russianbear,
The October rating list doesn't take into account the China-Russia match, where Jakovenko scored -1.
He should've lost at least 5 points from that. Considering the closeness of the players in his rating group, it could mean a drop of around 5 poitions in the rating list.
Well, my point was he is in the top 10 for now. And while he lost points in the China-Russia match, he is +2 so far in the Russian Superfinal.