Thanks to a last-minute intervention by the Ministry of Magic, the final FIDE Grand Prix tournament, much delayed and nearly forgotten, has hastily been arranged to take place near the famous prison of Azkaban from May 9-25. Not being present at the board the moment your clock is started will be punished by the player's soul being sucked out by a Dementor. Wait, what? Astrakhan? Is that near Azkaban? In Russia, you say? No Harry Potter? Well, all right, but I think this was a major missed opportunity.
So, Astrakhan it is, "situated in the Volga Delta, rich in sturgeon and exotic plants" and former home of the Golden Horde. It follows the GP events in the other yaktropolises of Nalchik and Jermuk, the last, way back in August. But the chess has been good to great in most of these events, and there is hot competition for the final qualifying spot in the candidates in this final event. Aronian is already in from the GP and isn't participating. Radjabov and Wang Yue are the frontrunners with Gashimov and Leko close behind. Jakovenko and Ivanchuk are longshots in for a chance if the others all falter. Game on!
Update: As Thomas points out below, since only the top two previous performances are likely to matter for the contenders, the relevant scores going into the final event are: Radjabov 303.3, Wang Yue 273.3, Gashimov 263.3, Ivanchuk 245.0, Jakovenko 243.3, Leko 240.0. He adds that Wang Yue will go through if he's clear first even if Radjabov is second. And that Ivanchuk will be the candidate if he wins clear first and Radjabov is lower than third. Doable. Go Chucky!
The players: Akopian, Alekseev, Eljanov, Gashimov, Gelfand, Inarkiev, Ivanchuk, Jakovenko, Leko, Mamedyarov, Ponomariov, Radjabov, Svidler, Wang Yue.
Go Chuky!
Indeed! Go Chucky!!!
CO
yaktropolis!
what is it about yaks and chess? like chocolate and peanut butter. Oh no, you got chess on my yak.
A missed opportunity, indeed. Especially since mr Potter has done more to promote chess to the young generation than has mr Kirsan.
Imagine what a sound FIDE-administration could have done in the area of using mr Potters good name.
As for Astrakhan I must say that this is one of the few cities on the tour that I had heard the name of before. This due to the fact that in Sweden (and I guess elsewhere) there is a certain sort of apples bearing the russian city's name.
In the Swedish author Vilhelm Mobergs epic about Swedish immigrants fleeing hunger to the US in the 19th century there is a famous scene where Kristina brings with her seeds from her astrakan to the new world.
If Ivanchuk wins clear or shared 1st, under what scenarios does he qualify?
I'd think that Gashimov & Wang Yue would be more motivated than Radjabov, who is likely to get the Azeri slot.
I had posted this before, these are the current GP standings based on the two best results (leaving out Aronian who already won the entire series):
Radjabov 303.3
Wang Yue 273.3
Gashimov 263.3
Ivanchuk 245.0
Jakovenko 243.3
Leko 240.0
The idea is that the third (worst) result doesn't matter if they do better in Astrakhan. It follows that the maximum number of points any player can get is [number above] + 180 for clear first. The players' chances are as follows:
- Radjabov can obviously defend his qualifying spot
- Wang Yue is through if he finishes clear first (Radjabov can tie if he's clear second, but has the inferior fourth result which is the tiebreaker)
- If Gashimov finishes clear first, Radjabov can stay ahead of him (but then Gashimov should get the wildcard, or would it go to Mamedyarov who is currently higher-rated?)
- If Ivanchuk is clear first, Radjabov needs to be at least clear third to stay ahead of Chucky. Noone else could catch him. This is because Ivanchuk's score is "most improvable" - he had one really bad result in Nalchik (12th-14th) which will be deleted.
Several players can ”theoretically” conquer the 2nd place in FIDE GP, earning a slot in the 8 player Candidate matches. This is the standings before the final tournament,
Radjabov
Grischuk
Wang Yue
Gashimov
Leko
Jakovenko
Ivanchuk
However, qualifying points are calculated from the best 3 out of 4 tournaments. -Which implies than we can remove the worst result from each player. Summarizing best 2 results changes the order,
Radjabov 303,3 points
WangYue 273,3 points
Gashimov 263,3 points
Ivanchuk 245 points
Jakovenko 243,3 points
Leko 240 points
A clear win gives 180 points. But even the bottom feeders receive points. So, Ivanchuk, Jakovenko and Lekos changes are only theoretical. They have to win and the others have to finish last. Here are the rules http://grandprix.fide.com/regulations.html
Hmm, had you already seen my post? I wouldn't call Ivanchuk's chances purely theoretical IF he manages to finish clear first. Anyone else could get a maximum of 150 points for clear second place, then only Radjabov can stay ahead of him. So yes, Chucky still needs a little help from others, say Gelfand, Leko and/or Svidler: one of them finishing ahead of Radjabov, one or two eithers being tied with him.
BTW, as a bottom feeder you don't receive (additional) points - because then Astrakhan will be the fourth (worst) result.
To finish my answer to Bill Brock's question: Ivanchuk's qualifying chances will be much worse if he "only" manages to share first place: 1st-2nd means 165 points, 1st-3rd means 153.3 points.
Mig,
really funny intro. Bravo!
"Hmm, had you already seen my post?"
While typing I went for a cup of coffee!
BTW – Speaking about the FIDE GP qualifiers, I posted a related analyze about the match-up in the following Candidates matches here on Chessgames.com http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessplayer?pid=52948&kpage=2099
No problem, I just disagree about Ivanchuk's chances being purely theoretical - his part is "simple": he has to finish clear first (shared first probably isn't enough) and then he needs "a little bit of luck" regarding Radjabov's result.
About Radjabov (and Gashimov): If they face each other near the end of the tournament, let alone the final round, there might be a situation where one player "needs to lose" so both qualify for the candidates tournament!? Say, Radjabov is first and Gashimov anywhere between 5th and 10th place (or the other way around). The winner qualifies via the GP, the loser gets the wildcard.
Not saying that they would prearrange the game, but eyebrows might be raised if it finishes with a "convenient" result. How to avoid this?
- if necessary (pairings aren't known yet), change the order of rounds so they face each other early on?
- force the Azeris to make their wildcard known before the GP event (= today). And if that player still qualifies, the candidates spot goes to #3 in the GP final standings.
BTW, I couldn't find the chessgames post you mentioned, or am I talking to "Bobby Fiske formerly known as frogbert"?
If Ivanchuk wins, someone else will surely slip in half a point ahead of him in the totals.
If I am Frogbert? Unfortunately I am just a patzer, with only a fraction of chess knowledge, compared to him. However we are both Norwegians and Carlsen fans. Thanks for the compliment, anyway!
The user interface is so-so at Chessgames. I cannot link to a post. Only a page. If I (or you) have someone on ignore then probably "page 2099" shows different contents. Anyway; You find it in the Carlsen forum dated April 29th.
Thanks for the Sofia report, btw!
On "my" page 2099 (I don't have anyone on ignore), there are only posts by frogbert which roughly fit your description (March 22, on Carlsen's "loss rates" against top10 players including those qualified for the candidates event). This combined with
- the fact that I didn't know that "different people see different pages"
- your Norwegian-sounding name or handle, and
- "the real frogbert's recent silence here"
made me think that it might be the same person.
I hope "the real frogbert" and Hans-Arild Runde don't mind ,:) .
Games just started in Astrakhan at 15:00 local Time (GMT+3).
1. round pairings:
Eljanov Pavel 2751 - Svidler Peter 2735
Akopian Vladimir 2694 - Gelfand Boris 2741
Mamedyarov Shakhriyar 2763 - Jakovenko Dmitry 2725
Gashimov Vugar 2734 - Ivanchuk Vassily 2741
Wang Yue 2752 - Leko Peter 2735
Alekseev Evgeny 2700 - Radjabov Teimour 2740
Inarkiev Ernesto 2669 - Ponomariov Ruslan 2733
Live moves from the organizers site: http://astrakhan2010.fide.com/live-games.html
Referring to my earlier post (May 9th 7:50AM): Radjabov and Gashimov play each other only in round 12, when "contours" of the final standings may already be predictable ... .
Fine detective work, Thomas. Sherlock Holmes would be proud of you. Would you mind shedding light on the whereabouts of Luke, IM Stoopid and Manu? Thanks.
Gashimov is not on good terms with some people in the Azeri chess federation. He is not going to get the wildcard. His only hope of qualifying is through the Grand Prix.
Please refer to me as ¨Artist formerly known as Manu¨ or AFKaM if you are getting jiggy with it.
@HardyBerger: Well, that was just a misunderstanding I wanted to explain ... . BTW, I would suggest that Mig imposes a maximum of, say, 15 characters, for handles. If someone wants to post as Nipumniachtchi, fine (I would refer to him as Nipu) - but it's hard to communicate writing down longer handles or using strange acronyms.
I consider myself more of a detective regarding Gashimov and Radjabov. chessplayer is probably right, proof:
- In an interview, Gashimov stated/complained that he doesn't get ANY support from the federation.
- He wasn't invited to the President's Cup, and organizers refused to even comment on it.
But does that mean that Mamedyarov would get the wildcard if Radjabov qualifies? Methinks this would be strange: True, Mamedyarov is currently the highest-rated Azeri and a (nominal) top10 player, but he got there mostly by beating lower-rated players on board 4 in team events. And he's a bit controversial since his cheating accusations against Kurnosov - though I would personally forgive him as I consider it a single incident.
And I am actually hoping that another (Eastern European) player known, among other things, for cheating accusations will play the candidates event! ,:)
From German Chessbase:
"Aronian is already known as one of the two qualifiers for the candidates event. Whether he will participate depends on the location. The Armenian has already said that he doesn't want to play in Baku. So maybe the third place in the final standings could become relevant."
Hmm, if THAT happens ..... . They also have a map on what they call the "Caucasus Cup", showing the locations of Jermuk, Baku, Sochi, Nalchik, Elista and Astrakhan.
http://chessbase.de/nachrichten.asp?newsid=10367
"How does the 8-player candidates tournament look like? Just two more spots remain (Topalov, Kramnik, Aronian, Carlsen, Kamsky, Gelfand, +2 others)? One of the spots to be decided in the ongoing gp event and the last one being the organizer's nominee? Kinda hard to keep track with so many rule changes."
I wonder how this will compare with San Luis 2005, and Mexico 2007?
Kramnik didn't play in 2005, Topalov didn't play in 2007, but Carlsen didn't play in either.
This Candidates' tournament looks to be stronger than the previous Tournament World Championships.
Gelfand has shown with his World Cup victory, and =2nd in Mexico that he can be a factor.
Kamsky has some time to prepare--I still think that he is better than his showing in the Match against Topalov, but his openings are the weakest of the group.
Aronian seems to be in his best form ever, but he's had problems with consistancy. Still, he seems to have improved over the past couple of years.
Radjabov seems to have the best chance of getting 2nd Place in the Grand Prix. He's currently in second place with 363.3. His two best scores (150 points in Sochi, and 153.3 points in Elista), effectively give him a 30 point cushion over Wang Yue. Gashimov is in 3rd Place, and addition 10 points behind. After 3 rounds of the Astrakhan Grand Prix tournament, Gashimov is co-leader at +1, so things are looking good for an Azerbaijani qualifying for the Candidates....
Ivanchuk, Jakovenko, and Leko are the Dark horses for the 2nd GP spot, while Mamedyarov and the rest are already Mathematically eliminated.
We will know soon enough who is the 2nd Place finisher in the GP.
Has the venue for the Candidates' Tournament been set yet? Obviously, that could give us some insight as to who would likely be the "Wild Card" invitee....
Last I read, Baku, Azerbaijan, is set to be the host of the Candidates' competition (whatever its Final Form), much to Aronian's discomfort. So, maybe BOTH Radjabov and Gashimov get to play in the Candidates, or perhaps Mamedyarov, who is the highest rated Azerbaijani amongst the three...
"I'd think that Gashimov & Wang Yue would be more motivated than Radjabov, who is likely to get the Azeri slot."
Why not Mamedyarov--who is higher rated than either Radjabov and Gashimov, and in better form, to boot?
Mamedyarov seems to have more "upside" potential, in terms of gaining a high finish. It can't hurt that at 2763, he's at his Alltime peak rating, and is currently ranked #6 (In January of 2007, he was briefly #4 in the World!). Radjabov is probably amply motivated to finish 1st, or at least to exert himself to do the best that he can. After all, he gets prize money for winning; the higher the place, the more he gets. Moreover, if he wants to vie for the unofficial title of best Azerbaijani national, he won't want to drop into the 3rd Ranking, behind Gashimov, or drop further behind Mamedyarov, for that matter. Timor achieved a rating of 2747 back in April of 2007, so it looks like he has reached a bit of a plateau.
Wang Yue is probably sufficiently motivated (although with his style of play, who could tell?), but his results have been trending downward (=1st at Baku, =3rd at Sochi, 5-9 at Elista). At 2752, and Ranked #8th in the World, he's at his peak, but I think his rivals are slowly adapting to his playing style. Although, he must be commended for being the first Chinese to reach the Top 10. I doubt that he himself will become World Champion, but perhaps one day at can be said that he will have paved the way.
From German Chessbase:
"Aronian is already known as one of the two qualifiers for the candidates event. Whether he will participate depends on the location. The Armenian has already said that he doesn't want to play in Baku. So maybe the third place in the final standings could become relevant."
Hmm, if THAT happens ..... . They also have a map on what they call the "Caucasus Cup", showing the locations of Jermuk, Baku, Sochi, Nalchik, Elista and Astrakhan
________________________________________
The Ladies had a different experience: the got to play in World Class cities such as Nanking and Istanbul
That would be very regrettable, if Aronian opted not to play. I wouldn't really blame him.
However, it's not quite analogous to having an Israeli (say, Gelfand) play in Libya or Iran. If Baku were to give express guarantees of fair play, then I'm not sure what additional accomodations FIDE can make. Back to Elista? Aronian plays by remote Link from a Neutral country, with arbiters present? I believe that as a condition for hosting the event, Azerbaijan was made to commit to allow Aronian to participate.
Perhaps in the future, though, it would be a good policy if FIDE endeavored to avoid holding Official competitions in any countries that are in a state of war with the country of an invited players...
"But does that mean that Mamedyarov would get the wildcard if Radjabov qualifies? Methinks this would be strange: True, Mamedyarov is currently the highest-rated Azeri and a (nominal) top10 player, but he got there mostly by beating lower-rated players on board 4 in team events. And he's a bit controversial since his cheating accusations against Kurnosov - though I would personally forgive him as I consider it a single incident.
And I am actually hoping that another (Eastern European) player known, among other things, for cheating accusations will play the candidates event! ,:)"
__________________________________________________
Well, Topalov is already invited, is from Eastern Europe, is certainly well-known, and has made infamous cheating allegations....Or did you have somebody else in mind?
Mamedyarov is one of a good handful of Top 20 players who make their ratings "Tumescent" by grinding out wins over weaker players. You don't even need to mention it. If the Azerbaijani Chess Federation is on bad terms with Gashimov (and with 3 World Class players, I suppose that they can afford to "Sacrifice" one), then Mamedyarof is simply the only other Logical selection.
Who would they select? The #4 ranked Rauf Mamedov, rated 2653? Nidjat Mamedov (2614)? There's Eltaj Safarli at 2610, or Gadir Guseinov at 2602...
No problem, I just disagree about Ivanchuk's chances being purely theoretical - his part is "simple": he has to finish clear first (shared first probably isn't enough) and then he needs "a little bit of luck" regarding Radjabov's result.
About Radjabov (and Gashimov): If they face each other near the end of the tournament, let alone the final round, there might be a situation where one player "needs to lose" so both qualify for the candidates tournament!? Say, Radjabov is first and Gashimov anywhere between 5th and 10th place (or the other way around). The winner qualifies via the GP, the loser gets the wildcard.
Not saying that they would prearrange the game, but eyebrows might be raised if it finishes with a "convenient" result. How to avoid this?
- if necessary (pairings aren't known yet), change the order of rounds so they face each other early on?
- force the Azeris to make their wildcard known before the GP event (= today). And if that player still qualifies, the candidates spot goes to #3 in the GP final standings.
________________________________________________
Round #6: Mamedyarov--Gashimov
Round #11: Radjabov--Mamedyarov
Round #12: Gashimov--Radjabov
Given that Azerbaijan is slated to be the host, it is practically a given that the Wild Card will be one of the Azerbaijani players (i.e. Mamedyarov, Radjabov, or Gashimov). The only Question is whether or not Azerbaijan will gain a 2nd spot, earned by having a player finish 2nd in the Grand Prix.
If Gashimov is indeed on bad terms with his compatriots, it certainly makes coordinating collusion to manipulate game results, and thereby the Final Standings, much more problematic. Unless there was a sudden thaw in relations, Gashimov (if he was out of contention) would have scant incentive to deliberately lose (or fail to win), so that Radjabov would clinch the spot. If Gashimov is in position to win, Radjabov probably wouln't be inclined to cooperate, as he could still hope to be selected as the "Wild Card".
Far more consequential is the result from the game Radjabov--Mamedyarov, in Round # 11. Mamedyarov is already eliminated from winning the 2nd Place slot in the Grand Prix. If Radjabov fails to gain 2nd Place in the GP, he is still guaranteed to finish higher than Mamedyarov. He would be the more likely selection as "Wild Card". However, if Mamedyarov could facilitate Radjabov winning the 2nd spot, then he, Mamedyarov, would quite likely be selected as the "Wild Card".
Of course, Ivanchuk is still in contention, and there are two other Ukrainian players in the field: Pavel Eljanov and Ruslan Ponomariov.
Ponomariov seems to be a one-off Substitute, perhaps for Kasimdzhanov, and Eljanov is effectively 18th in the GP Standings.
Ivanchuk is Black against Pono in Round #5 and White against Eljanov in Round #11.
Dmitry Jakovenko (Russian) also has some chance of getting 2nd Place in the GP, especially if he wins the event outright. The field has 3 other Russians: Peter Svidler, Ernesto Inarkiev, and Evgeny Alekseev. Inarkiev is dead last in the GP standings, with a measly total of 50 points, svidler is eliminated, and Alekseev all but out of contention.
Jakovenko is:
White against Alekseev in Round #4,
Black against Inarkiev in Round #5,
and Black against Svidler in Round #10
After 3 Rounds, Ivanchuk stands at -1, Gashimov at +1, while Radjabov and Jakovenko have drawn all of their games. So, Ivanchuk has his work cut out for him, while Gashimov's chances are starting to improve.
[Ivanchuk, Jakovenko, and Leko are the Dark horses for the 2nd GP spot, while Mamedyarov and the rest are already Mathematically eliminated]
Small Addendum: Mamedyarov and Alekseev both have the possibility to reach 365 GP points, if they take Clear 1st in Astrakhan. All it would take is for everybody ahead of them to do poorly
"Topalov ....Or did you have somebody else in mind?"
Of course I meant Topalov - as I wrote my comment before game 12 in Sofia, it was a slightly twisted way (hence the smiley) to say that I was rooting for Anand in the WCh match ... .
On your other points: Yep the organizers have to choose between Radjabov, Gashimov and Mamedyarov for the wildcard, I think there is a rule that his rating has to be >2700. Regarding collusion, it depends on how bad terms Gashimov is, and with whom (fellow players and/or federation honchos?).
As Ivanchuk lost again today, he probably won't be a WCh candidate - at least not in this cycle - or one could win quite some money still betting on him. As I said, he probably needs to finish clear first which may require +5 in 9 remaining rounds. This can still be done, but normally Chucky's tournaments are either all fine or all bad, rarely in between or changing in the middle of an event .... .
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